LOS ANGELES — You want to believe. You really do.
But you have believed before. Like in 2017 when Brandon Morrow and Kenley Jansen were shutting down the back end of games — until they weren’t.
Or 2018 when Ryan Madson was supposed to be Jansen’s new sidekick and rotation overflow (Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias and Alex Wood) was going to make the bullpen solid.
Or last fall when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he had the deepest bullpen he’d ever had in the postseason — then made decisions in Game 5 against the Washington Nationals (bringing Clayton Kershaw in out of the bullpen in Game 5, leaving Joe Kelly in for a second inning) that showed he didn’t even believe that himself.
But still — you want to believe.
“I think the bullpen is probably the biggest difference that sets us apart from previous years,” Dodgers utilityman Chris Taylor said recently. “They’ve been lights out and I think that’s going to be huge for us come October.”
The lights have been on a dimmer switch lately. Dodgers relievers have given up runs in each of the past nine games (multiple runs in six of them) and leads in two of the past three while posting a 4.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over that stretch.
Roberts explained away the recent numbers by saying, correctly, that the bullpen collectively and individually can’t be expected to “be perfect.”
Until this recent stumble, though, the Dodgers’ relief corps was nearly so. Through their first 33 games, the Dodgers’ bullpen put up a 1.90 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. Successful reclamation projects in Blake Treinen and Jake McGee and the evolution of Caleb Ferguson from surplus starter to (until recently) bullpen weapon went a long way in elevating that group.
“You look at the analytics side of things,” Treinen said of the group’s success. “Whether we’re stubborn or not as players, I have to check myself and realize this team does an incredible job of game-planning. They do an incredible job of putting us in situations to be the most successful we can.
“It’s not just myself that’s had a great year. I look around at the situations they’re putting Ferguson in. And seeing the changes Kenley (Jansen) has made and he’s openly talked about. Then we see (Dylan) Floro and AK (Adam Kolarek) and (Brusdar) Graterol — there’s so many guys you see go out there and continue to have success. Yeah, stuff plays regardless of a situation. But when you can take stuff and combine a situation it really does increase your chances for success. And I think that’s a tip of the cap to Doc to Andrew (Friedman) to the staff who put the gameplanning together.
“Sometimes I just have to sit back and laugh. I know as a competitor I want say, ‘Throw me out there in any fricking situation. I just want to compete.’ But at the end of the day we’re all having the seasons we’re having a) because of our hard work and b) because of the commitment to the players that the organization has. There’s a lot to it.”
The imminent returns of Pedro Baez and Joe Kelly from injuries could potentially expand Roberts’ bullpen options even further. But none of that really matters if Jansen isn’t the elite closer he has been for most of his career.
Like Clayton Kershaw, the 32-year-old Jansen is no longer the pitcher he was when the Dodgers started this run of championship contention. And like Kershaw, he has taken on the challenge of evolving as a pitcher and seems to be succeeding at it.
Both Kershaw and Jansen made trips to Driveline Academy last fall, using the analytically-focused think tank to gather insight into their pitch mix, pitch characteristics and mechanics. Jansen has openly talked about his visit (Kershaw, predictably, has been guarded and circumspect) and adopted some of the weighted-ball exercises with missionary zeal.
While it has given Jansen’s velocity only a mild boost — his average fastball has ticked up from 92.0 mph last year to 92.6 this season — the movement of his cutter seems better and he has expanded his pitch mix, throwing both two- and four-seam fastballs and a slider with greater confidence this season.
“I think he feels real good this year,” Dodgers catcher Will Smith said. “The cutter is playing real well. The four-seamer is doing really well as well. He’s dominating. He’s attacking the zone. He’s getting ahead of guys. His velo is back up a little bit. And the slider is a good put-away pitch. … He’s using everything well.”
It might look different than it did in 2017 when he had one of the best seasons a closer has ever had. But it is working. In his first 17 innings this season, Jansen has faced 68 batters. According to Statcast, only one has hit a ball on the barrel of the bat and only three batters have produced what qualifies as a hard-hit ball (an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher).
“I think Kenley is certainly getting back to where he was before,” Roberts said during August when Jansen was the National League’s Reliever of the Month. “I think that’s a good thing for all of us, mostly Kenley. He’s been fighting a lot of things over the last couple years. But certainly in the ninth inning when we have the lead, to be able to call on him and know that it’s lockdown — that’s a good thing for all of us.”
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