NBA FINALS
SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)
Game 1: at Lakers, Wed., Sept. 30, 6 p.m., ABC
Game 2: at Lakers, Fri., Oct. 2, 6 p.m., ABC
Game 3: at Heat, Sun., Oct. 4, 4:30 p.m., ABC
Game 4: at Heat, Tues., Oct. 6, 6 p.m., ABC
x-Game 5: at Lakers, Fri., Oct. 9, 6 p.m., ABC
x-Game 6: at Heat, Sun., Oct. 11, 4:30 p.m., ABC
x-Game 7: at Lakers, Tues., Oct. 13, 6 p.m., ABC
HEAD-TO-HEAD (this season)
Lakers won the regular season, 2-0
Nov. 8: Lakers 95, Heat 80, at Staples Center
Dec. 13: Lakers 113, Heat 110, at American Airlines Arena
TALE OF THE TAPE
Heat (NBA rank) … category … Lakers (NBA rank)
44-29 … Season Record … 52-19
112.0 (15th) … PPG … 113.4 (11th)
109.1 (10th) … Opp. PPG … 107.6 (fourth)
46.8 (10th) … FG Pct. … 48 (first)
37.9 (2nd) … 3-pt Pct. … 34.9 (21st)
78.3 (13th) … FT Pct. … 72.9 (28th)
44.4 (17th) … Rebounds … 45.7 (ninth)
25.9 (5th) … Assists … 25.4 (10th)
7.5 (18th) … Steals … 8.6 (fifth)
4.5 (21st) … Blocked shots … 6.6 (first)
14.9 (18th) … Turnovers … 15.2 (22nd)
STARTING BACKCOURT
It’s hard to find a pair that bring more pound-for-pound toughness than Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, two sturdy shotmakers who have made for a great pairing in the playoffs. Butler is a two-way menace who gives a little bit of everything and has come up clutch, especially in the second-round upset of Milwaukee. Dragic has reminded viewers of why he was once considered a key piece on a contender, and has led Miami in scoring (20.9 ppg) in the postseason. They’re eerily similar statistically. The Lakers’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green have been very good defensively against some of the best scorers in the league, but offensively, they can still give more. KCP is shooting 44 percent from 3-point range this postseason. EDGE: HEAT
STARTING FRONTCOURT
There haven’t been a lot of compelling defenders who match up with the Lakers’ Anthony Davis in the playoffs. Miami’s Bam Adebayo might be one. He was devastating against a Boston team without a true center, and he was a key piece of a strategy that limited Giannis Antetokounmpo’s effectiveness in Round 2 and wreaked havoc on Milwaukee’s halfcourt offense. Davis is in the midst of a historic run and seems to relish the chance to play a worthy UK foe. LeBron James will be tougher. Jae Crowder is a solid defender with a questionable 3-point shot. Duncan Robinson has an incredible 3-point shot but has been victimized on the defensive end. Butler will likely have to spend some possessions on James, burning his calories. While the Heat have been very sound defensively, they’ll have their hands full with the pairing, who have been able to bust zones before. EDGE: LAKERS
BENCHES
There’s three borderline Hall of Famers coming off the bench in this series, all 34 or older. The Lakers’ Rajon Rondo (7.2 apg) has turned back the clock to become a needed second ball-handler and trusted counter-attacker (who is even hitting his 3-pointers). It’s unclear if Dwight Howard will keep starting, but his physicality and defense was invaluable against Denver. Andre Iguodala is a perfect puzzle piece for the Heat as a three-time champion who is a capable defender and occasional shot-hitter. The biggest X-factor here, however, comes with youth. For the Heat, it’s Tyler Herro, who scored 37 points in an incredible Game 4 against Boston and can heat up in a hurry. The Lakers would like Kyle Kuzma to regain that same shooting confidence after two series where he hasn’t been as much of a factor. Because Miami has only played two or three bench guys in the last few series, depth should help the Lakers here. EDGE: LAKERS
COACHES
Aside from Davis, perhaps no Laker has seen his reputation take a greater climb than Frank Vogel, who has earned validation after once being questioned for not being the Lakers’ top pick. He’s changed lineups, he’s thrown in unusual schemes, and the Lakers, including James, have fallen in line with the adjustments suggested by him and his coaching staff. He’s now 43-33 in the postseason. Miami’s Erik Spoelstra also has gotten validation by driving a team that was fifth seed in the East all the way to the Finals. The Heat play with relentless effort and motion that has flummoxed teams with greater talent. Spoelstra’s career playoff record stands at 83-50 with two titles. And he’s done this latest one without top-tier superstar talent. EDGE: HEAT
INTANGIBLES
Butler talked Tuesday about the Heat not believing they are the underdogs. That shows up in their play, especially as they bullied a soft Bucks team into a five-game series win despite playing against the MVP. Their energy and effort is easily characterized by “Heat Culture,” which is an extension of Spoelstra and Pat Riley, the men who helped build LeBron into a winner. It’s worth wondering what schemes Spoelstra and company can concoct for James, knowing him as well as any other coach in the world. But having James and Davis have also given the Lakers a sense of confidence that has so far helped them roll in the very tough Western Conference against very good superstars. They’re comfortable playing Goliath. There’s also the question of how the Lakers and Miami choose to play rotations. Would the Heat be comfortable playing big with Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk? Would the Lakers be forced to play small like the Houston series and play Davis and Markieff Morris at five? Interesting questions. EDGE: EVEN
SERIES PREDICTION
Something just feels tougher about the Heat than any opponent the Lakers have faced. They have more coordination on defense. They have extremely even scoring through their six top guys. They never stop moving on offense, and they’re capable of cutting opponents to death. They have championship experience, and a coaching staff that knows the ins and outs of LeBron. They’re absolutely unintimidated. But with all that being said, the Lakers have more talent — especially with James and Davis — more championship experience among their players, and they’ve been perhaps the best defensive team in the entire bubble. Grit can take you far, but the Lakers have shown grit, too, winning big games and winning tight ones. They can adapt to the Heat playing with size or playing small, and their depth is better. They can get to the free throw line when they need to. Even with all the obstacles, it’s hard to pick against LeBron James to win a title. Look how far he and the Lakers have come already. LAKERS IN SIX
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