When a bright young coach seems to have the NFL all figured out, sooner or later the league will get him figured out.
It happened to Rams coach Sean McVay after his innovative offense was the rage in 2018.
It can happen to Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley any week, month or year now.
“I think that’s something definitely Brandon will have to be ready for in the offseason, when the whole league gets to study the special things those guys are doing over there (on the defensive side),” Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell said, no doubt wishing he had that problem.
Or maybe Staley should be ready before that, knowing an opponent could find the antidote to the Rams’ league-leading defense at an inopportune moment in the regular season’s next six remaining games.
Sunday afternoon, the Rams (7-3) play the San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at SoFi Stadium, the current NFC West leaders facing a defending NFC champion overwhelmed by injuries and COVID-19.
A rematch of the Rams’ 24-16 loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara in October, this is the first of three upcoming games for L.A. that will be second meetings with division opponents, occasions that can be the laboratory for tactical invention.
The 49ers, with coach and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, have given the Rams more trouble than any other foe the past two seasons. The 49ers have beaten them three times in a row, twice when the Rams were favored.
In 2019, the Niners won a defensive battle at the Coliseum and a shootout up north that turned on two third-and-16 conversions against the Rams defense then coordinated by Wade Phillips. In Week 6 of 2020, they piled up the most total yards any team has recorded in a game against the Rams defense in Staley’s first year in charge.
Rams quarterback Jared Goff doubts the 49ers have found a formula for beating their rivals, since San Francisco’s three wins were so different. But Goff didn’t sugarcoat what happened.
“They’ve gotten our number though for the last three times,” Goff said. “Hopefully we can buck that trend this week.”
Teams began to figure out how to stop McVay’s offense late in his second season, after the Rams began to play in prime time frequently in 2018 on their way to the Super Bowl.
The rest of the NFL has gotten just as good a look at Staley’s defense this season, with the Rams on four Sunday and Monday night national-TV slots already.
The latest was their 27-24 win against Tampa Bay and Tom Brady on Monday. It was the second straight win over a playoff-bound team with a Hall of Fame-bound quarterback, following the previous Sunday’s 23-16 win over Seattle and Russell Wilson. Two games before that, there was the Rams’ 24-10 victory over the Chicago Bears in a Monday night battle of ballyhooed defenses.
Staley speaks of the imperative to “self-scout,” to spot weaknesses in the Rams defense before opponents do.
“What’s very critical as a coach is how others see you,” Staley said. “As much as you’re studying them, you need to know how they’re seeing you.”
It might be even harder for offensive coaches to figure out a leading defense than it is for defensive coaches to defuse a hot offense, since a good defense is by definition somewhat different from week to week, adjusting to the offense it’s about to face.
“I think that you evolve as the season goes on. You never stay the same,” Staley said. “Each week has a life of its own.”
The Rams defense presents two particular challenges for the great minds around the league.
One is Staley, 37, whose ability to adjust to surprises from opposing offenses is evident in the fact the Rams have allowed only three second-half touchdowns in 10 games.
Another is his players. The defense is built around defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, stars at their positions. And it thrives on versatility among a deep roster of players like cornerback Darious Williams, rookie safety Jordan Fuller and linebacker Micah Kiser, whom people are just discovering – or edge rusher Leonard Floyd, whom people are re-discovering.
No amount of brainpower prepares an offense for Donald.
“It’s about our players, number one, and then being able to kind of have (Staley’s) philosophy come to life,” McVay said.
Playing with the responsibility of being in first place in the division for the first time this season, the Rams have such an advantage in good health right now that the 49ers offense might not be able to execute even the best Shanahan game plan.
With Jimmy Garoppolo among the 49ers stars on injured reserve, Nick Mullens is the starting quarterback for the fifth time this season, coming off double-digit losses to Green Bay and New Orleans.
The Niners have been hit hard by COVID-19 cases too, and learned Saturday that a Santa Clara health directive barring sports could force them to move their next three home games.
Meanwhile, the Rams canceled a practice Friday in part as what McVay called a “precautionary” move after a player and staff member tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, only to later test negative twice.
The Rams go into the game as 6 1/2-point favorites but wary.
“They’re the reigning NFC champions, a couple plays away from being Super Bowl champions,” McVay said. “I know too much about these guys, their coaches and their players, to ever take anything for granted.”
NOTES
Tyrique McGhee, a cornerback on the Rams’ practice squad, was suspended for two games without pay for violating the NFL’s Policy on Performance-Enhancing Substances. The undrafted rookie from Georgia hasn’t played in a game. …
The Rams said linebacker Terrell Lewis (knee) is officially out of the game, a downgrade from doubtful on Friday’s injury report. …
Linebacker Natrez Patrick and safety J.R. Reed were elevated from the practice squad to the active roster. …
Defensive end Derek Rivers, recently claimed on waivers, was placed on the active roster. …
Defensive back Jake Gervase came off the COVID-19 reserve list.
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