Orange County’s skyrocketing rate of coronavirus cases has propelled it to new pandemic heights as state officials this week sounded the surge alarms and health care systems brace for impact.
A state Department of Public Health update Tuesday, Dec. 1, showed that Orange County has about 22.2 new cases of the virus reported per day per 100,000 residents, up from 18.7 cases per 100,000 on Saturday.
Ignoring a state adjustment that credits a county’s testing capacity, Orange County’s latest case rate appears to be record-setting, topping rates of new cases the county saw during the mid-July spike, according to Health Care Agency data.
County health officials could not be reached for comment.
The county previously under performed in testing compared to the state average, but has ramped up its operations and now is testing more than ever. More than 100,000 swab tests were performed the week before Thanksgiving, nearly twice the testing volume of a peak week during the summer surge.
Case rates are driven higher now, in part, by a growth in testing.
The county’s testing positivity – the share of swab tests coming back positive – grew to 8.8% in Tuesday’s update, an increase from 7.6% on Saturday.
The state’s tracking of testing positivity in hard-hit and generally low-income neighborhoods – called the health equity metric – has been on hold since mid-November due to the overall surge. It was the third metric helping decide what tier of the state’s tracking system a county would fall in.
Because the pandemic is picking up speed, the state health department has started updating county metrics more often. Since the four-tier tracking system was introduced in late August, state officials announced new metrics and county movements between tiers about once a week.
Last week, coronavirus patients filled Orange County hospital beds faster than any other week so far in the pandemic.
More than 600 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 by Tuesday, a tally that is quickly approaching the high water mark of 722 on July 14. Bed availability has resurfaced as a central concern for state health officials; Newsom on Monday said beds in Southern California, at 66% occupancy now, could be 79% full by Christmas Eve.
During the summer surge, Orange County’s hospitals were able to absorb the wave of coronavirus patients by flexing their surge strategies; the county’s 33 hospitals maintained a collective occupancy that never exceeded 73%. Armed with tried-and-true plans and new COVID-19 treatment options, emergency room doctors have expressed confidence they were ready for a new wave.
The toll of coronavirus-related deaths, generally seen as a lagging indicator of the pandemic’s course, has not yet reciprocated rising case rates. Orange County’s Health Care Agency has not reported a COVID-19 fatality since Friday, when it received a glut of 18 recent deaths.
The coronavirus has caused the deaths of 1,577 Orange County residents to date; nearly half of the deceased lived in nursing or assisted living homes.
State officials have sought to slow the pace of spread with a brisk series of directives.
On Nov. 16, Gov. Gavin Newsom yanked a public health “emergency brake,” which moved most of the state’s counties, Orange included, to the purple tier, placing indoor capacity and other restrictions on businesses and public places.
Days later, Newsom announced a curfew to stop most non-essential work, gatherings and travel overnight, when pandemic habits are disregarded most.
On Monday, the governor said a new stay-at-home order similar to the one issued at the pandemic’s outset is on the table for purple tier counties, which as of Tuesday includes 99% of Californians.
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